Bull Season back on the table?
The day before FOMC earlier this week I tweeted this. The wise move would have been to keep mum, see what Jerome Powell had to say, and then comment.
Those who have been following me for a while now know, I like to call out things as I see them. I am happy to change my mind when the data changes.
Thus far the weight of the evidence is suggesting that we have commenced the bull season.
Those who follow the crypto updates know that the Model went Long in early Jan. Some of the Models Crypto Picks have done phenomenally well (more on this later)
I will NOT pretend to claim I know, how long will this cycle last or high will it go. But as always will evaluate week on week and the clue lies in following the smart money.
Also, if it turns out to be the mother of all fake-outs, then in next month's updates I will signal bearish too. I am OK with getting a call wrong but will not stay wrong.
Until that happens I will be looking to go LONG.
While the trend has flipped to bullish on the high time frame, everything has gone up too fast and a lot in Jan. Doesn't mean it cannot go up, just that some pullback is to be expected.
Nothing ever goes up in a straight line. Something to keep in mind before FOMOing into positions.
Let's begin with the biggest source of truth. Bond Markets.
They say every trade in the world is a bond trade. The reason being, the cost of money decides everything else.
Model is bullish on $TLT and Bearish on US10Y
With interest rates calming down, and liquidity back in the system, the risk assets are very like to continue their upward march.
One of the other variables which decide the fate of risk is USD.
Old followers of the newsletter know that Model called the Top of the USD move and went bearish at the top and has been bearish since then to date.
Model continues to be bearish on USD.
But the move is overextended on the downside and can move up in the short term. This could cause a pullback in equities and cryptos.
Speaking of Risk assets
Model is Bullish on $SPX & $NDX
Instead of covering every other TradFi asset, I will focus on the Top 30 Stocks that the model is bullish on, just like I do for Cryptos.
Now unlike Crypto, the universe of Stocks is much bigger hence we would need some selection criteria.
All stocks that will be published are from Russell 1000 Index. This ensures there's ample liquidity coz we are dealing with the top 1000 stocks listed in the US markets.
Secondly, these are the kinds of stocks that I would personally invest in. I like the growth and innovation sectors.
While we can debate where innovation is happening, for the purpose of the newsletter updates
The stocks chosen will be from Technology, Internet, and Biotech Space, as historically they have proven to throw the biggest winners that create wealth.
NOTE: Some of the names are up quite a bit in the last month, don't blindly ape in and get rekt.
Also, TradFi stocks move at a completely different pace than Crypto, so do not expect to see the explosive moves you see in Models Crypto Picks.
Top 30 Stocks are
$META, $DT, $SPOT, $MANH, $AFRM, $RNG, $PATH, $NCNO, $DV, $PLTR, $DV, $PLTR, $DOCS, $SPLK, $FIVN, $DOCU, $OKTA, $TWLO, $HOOD, $CRM, $TEAM, $NEWR, $CFLT, $MDB, $WOOF, $TOST, $NOW, $MSFT, $U, $BSY
For those who are interested in other TradFi assets, I will conduct AMA sessions.
Coming to Crypto. Models longs have been doing really well.
All Gains mentioned are after the Longs were published in the last 3 weeks.
They are SPOT gains without using any leverage.
AGIX up 632% (Not a typo)
FET up 233%
RNDR up 211%
OCEAN up 107%
SSV up 78%
FTM up 52%
VOXEL up 43%
BTC up 35%
ETH up 27%
Many others are up 20%-30% and some are flat.
Model Continues to be LONG
$BTC $ETH $LTC $RLC $LDO $SSV $FET $ELF $AGIX $OCEAN
$SOL $MATIC $FTM $RUNE $CRV $RNDR $PYR $VIB $PHB $SNM $BAND $LIT $IRIS $VOXEL $UNFI $TRB $INJ $ASTR $SFP
Model has Entered $FLUX $WOO $ATOM $ARPA $PHA
Model has Exited $APE $OAX $NEBL $WABI $QLC $ANT $AMB
Note: Crypto has been on fire in Jan. Lot of the names are over-extended.
Model is designed to ride the momentum and will exit only when the trend breaks on a High time frame. By then many of the names would give up some of their gains. It's not a bug, its a feature.
It's not possible to have 100x without pullbacks. And only in hindsight one would know which one is a pullback and which one is a trend break. There's no way around it.
Familiarize yourselves with how the model works if you intend to follow it.
Also here is the Models Past Performance
Below are the All Models signals on BTC ETH Solana from 2020 to date.
I have been publishing this every week since early 2022 and will continue to do so every week.
** Web3Quant is not registered with any financial regulatory agencies. Web3Quant is purely a research publishing firm and does not provide any personalized financial advice. Do your own research and consult your financial advisor.**