market update and announcement.
announcement
access to the web3quant system is officially closed.
for existing subs: nothing changes. you keep your access and can continue to renew via admin support team like usual.
many of you have the current system deeply integrated into your trading flows, and i do not want disrupt that.
the rationale: the next architecture i've been developing is a proverbial 10x improvement. it is designed to catch massive multi-week htf moves and operates completely differently than what you are used to seeing.
the new engine isn't 100% yet, but i will start publishing the live results this week onward with the market updates and trades so you can see it working in real time.
when it goes live, current subs will have priority and the option to seamlessly migrate over if they choose to.
until then, the gates are locked for new users.
market update
pleased with how things have played out inline with the updates.
in the last update I spoke of 82K being the high and it being the local top
thus far its on track. system signaled SELL too.
bulk of the interesting price action have been in alts mentioned in the updates - alt plays like HYPE ZEC NEAR PENGU etc..
HYPE continues to be one of the only alts where you can hold the position with conviction as i have been repeatedly writing about for a while. Here Here here
the only risk to hype imo is a hack. lets hope it never happens.
its one of the few genuinely good projects to come out of crypto.
the dino squeeze
in the alt plays update even wrote about dino coin XLM. which seems to be having a good time.
its doubled this week.
while the timeline gets silly over these pumps, it is not something to get genuinely excited about especially when btc price action is this anemic.
dino pumps in a stagnant major market are typically climax exhaustion moves. they signal the end of the rotation, not the beginning.
in terms of where we are headed next
the majors are looking extremely tired. the big picture bias is that crypto is headed lower.
summer seasonality is kicking in, which is historically weak for risk-on assets.
additionally, the next couple of weeks are heavy with catalysts:
> the spacex ipo is approaching (HYPE will get a lot of attention from tradfi).
most folks are expecting it to be the top of all tops.
im not sure about that. the sentiments likely zig zags between man it was so obvious to this time its different.
will play it by ear.
> we have the first interest rate decision from the new fed chair, warsh.
we likely get a rate hike but the commentary post will be more interesting.
with this admin its really hard to say. nothing is off limits. so dont want to keep a hard stance here either.
>for crypto, the clarity act is a catalyst
if it clears the senate in June if it does we likely get a spike.
the playbook
expect chop next week or so.
we likely see a relief rally back into the high 70s but do not mistake that for a structural reversal in majors (ride HYPE till trend break).
post that we are biased lower.
invalidation: a weekly close above 84k driven by a major catalyst.
until then, protect capital.
see you in the next one.