As I mentioned, I would be doing more mid-week updates as necessary.
Not every mid-week update would mean an Ominous call (although this one is)
so do not get anxious when you see the tweet announcing the same.
It's done so folks can expect it and act on lower time frames should they wish.
Let's address some of the questions first
A few folks have requested to change the timing of the post. While I appreciate its odd hours in some geographies, it's the downside of trading crypto. It's 24/7 and all the readers/traders are based globally. There's no one single time that would make everyone happy.
Timing of the posts is not sent keeping any particular location in mind. The Model waits for Daily/Weekly confirmations to generate signals. And they happen at UTC 00:00 hence all updates are sent post that time including this one.
Next about invalidation. Some of you had questions about it, while a few others did not even read the NOTE that was right next to the table.
NOTE: Invalidations are on a weekly time frame but for someone who wishes to be more "active" in trading, wait for a minimum of 1 Day or 3 Day close before considering it an invalidation.
Please ensure you at least read the update fully.
For those who had questions about invalidation.
The strategy and the levels mentioned are based on Weekly closing prices. So ideally, subsequent weekly updates would cover the Exits anyways.
But for those who like to trade in and out of positions, it would be best (it's not a recommendation, just guidance)
to wait for Daily or 3Day time-frame closing prices to consider.
Why do closing prices matter more than intra-day or intra-week prices?
They are a more reliable indicator of a trend as the markets get enough time to digest the news and show us the true direction where it wants to head next.
Yes, at times you do lose some meat on the move waiting for confirmations. but it also saves you from whipsaws and shakeouts.
Lastly, some asked what ENTERED and Long mean.
They both mean the same aka Model is on long.
Entered and Exited is labeled to show what were the fresh entry and exits for that week.
Coming to the Model Positions
Our strategy to play defense is playing out as I have mentioned in the last few updates now.
Till we get a breakout and signs of an up trend, momentum picking up. It's best to play defense. This will continue to be the case going forward too. Both $BTC and $ETH are hovering around support areas.
There are many ways to play defense. Different traders/investors deal with it differently. Some book profits and some reduce position sizes. Some hedge their LONGs by buying PUT options.
Both trend and momentum continue to weaken and many positions are below invalidation levels. The Model will go into CASH if it even hovers around given levels at the weekly close.
The scenario that was laid out in the "Macro Looking Ominous" Post is playing out. When this was published, no one was even talking about Macro getting worse
It's time to be more cautious till we get a strong indication of a reversal.
See you all in the next post.
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