Could the Echo bubble take Bitcoin to 50,000?
In last weeks post I had mentioned
We got the pullback, also they are trading at the support levels mentioned.
As I always say there's an element of PRICE and then there's an element of TIME (an underrated factor).
So far all signs are pointing towards this being a much-needed consolidation. We do NOT want to see the prices linger or deteriorate from here on out. Maybe a sharp shakeout by a wick lower, cleaning out levered folks, and then moving back up would be an ideal case.
It played out. Now what?
Old readers of the newsletter know that model has been long since 1st week of Jan. Managed to ride this entire up move without moving in and out of positions.
Also on Twitter, on many occasions since last month, I have been unambiguously calling for 25K-30K as a logical target for this move.
Earlier today I mentioned this
Don't get me wrong, I will still follow the model for entry/exit and call out as it comes. but it's always good to have a thought exercise on possible big-picture scenarios.
The reason to do that is, most folks have a fixed outcome set in their minds (PTSD of the last bear too) and don't change their bias even when the data is clearly suggesting to do so.
At any given point in time, ask yourself? What is the least consensus view? Where the max pain is?
Do you think Markets will give a nice juicy entry to folks who missed most of this rally?
Folks who book profit at 30k, do you think they would be able to enter again at higher levels, should the rally continue?
Anyone who seriously traded knows this, ENTRY is easy. RE-ENTERING positions at higher levels is really hard. Your ego/regret gets in the way.
In a bearish regime, I would've leaned on rally fizzling out sooner. But since the data is suggesting that we are in a Bullish regime, I want to mentally be open to the possibility of much higher levels, perhaps 50K BTC.
There are many HTF data points that is suggesting the same.
Lastly, the entire Crypto Twitter seems to be high on the Echo Bubble Thesis, aka BTC repeating the 2019 Price action. So even if that were to play out, close to 50K levels make the most sense.
Those who have followed me for a while know that I will call things as I see them, if tomorrow we get super bearish news and data changes, so will my opinion. And don't expect the move to be ONE way without any correction either.
Coming to Models Performance. Models longs have been doing really well.
Many of them are up 2x-7x.
Note: All Gains mentioned are after the Longs were published. They are SPOT gains without using any leverage.
Model has exited
$LTC $ELF $VIB $UNFI
Model is Long
$AR $TRU $AUDIO $MTL $RIF $SOL $DOT
$BTC $ETH $MATIC $ATOM $RLC
$LDO $SSV $FET $AGIX $OCEAN $FTM
$RNDR $PHB $LIT $IRIS $VOXEL
$INJ $ASTR $SFP $FLUX $WOO $ARPA $PHA
As mentioned on Twitter, I will be going premium soon.
I got a lot of good suggestions.
1) Free subscribers will continue to get delayed access to Models calls on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and select Alts.
2) To make the updates more useful to all categories of users. There will be 2 sets of Long Holdings.
The first set would contain a maximum of 15 most liquid Coins with a high market cap and trading volume. This would be useful to folks who can only trade with bigger sizes.
The second set would contain a maximum of 15 coins that tend to be explosive movers. This would be useful to everyone, who does not have any constraints.
Will make the announcement with all the other FAQs this week.
DMs are open if you have specific questions.
Thank you for the support!
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