ZCASH

a lot of updates this week, but crypto simply cannot catch a break.

continuing from the last update

overall trend is severely bearish now.
we likely see some mean reversion on ltf but those still sell on rally mode overall rather than buy the dip (unless ones scalping).

ZEC is down over 40% for a potential security vulnerability.

im not remotely technical enough to comment on if only a 'scare' or the threat is real.

purely as trade its over in the short to medium term.

coz the confidence as a SoV narrative is dented regardless. and it takes time to repair.

also this is happening at a worst possible time overall.

had this been a bull it would've been quicker to recover but we are in the capitulation phase of the crypto bear and the PA can be brutal.

despite the current PA ZEC remains on my high-potential watchlist for when the cycle eventually turns. the people i consider "real" in this space are still believers.

XMR vs ZEC: the narrative

there is constant debate around XMR vs ZEC.

my layman view: purely on tech superiority, perhaps XMR > ZEC.

why? because XMR gets banned by governments and exchanges everywhere, while ZEC is often accepted.

that tells me authorities aren't scared enough of ZEC's tech to ban it.

but luckily, trading isn't about having the absolute best tech in the world.

it is about believers, flows, and narratives.

ZEC has champions both inside and outside of CT.
a 'private BTC with similar price targets' narrative.

when the time comes, those both are enough for the flows and the trade to work.

until then, respect the bear structure.

anyone whose been around in previous bear cycles know floor can be a lot lower than we imagine.

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the system edge here is the critical part: the system didn't wait for the news to hit the timeline.

it didn't print a sell signal yesterday during the panic.

it printed a SELL last month in may, back in the 600s.

also caught the 10x move in oct to dec last year.

see you in the next one.