short term rally?

quick one.

we have seen a severe correction and breakdown on the HTF. sentiment is deeply bearish. the timeline is entirely doom posting. but if you ignore the panic,

the charts are actually looking constructive.

Stocks followed GOLD, and lastly BTC, in that order.

• STOCKS: strong. SPX QQQ hasn't even broken the HTF structure. it looks primed for continuation with tech leading the rally.
• GOLD: currently offering the best risk/reward on the board after a clean 30% correction. the system just printed a fresh BUY signal.
• BTC: not out of the woods yet. a mean reversion rally into the high 60s / low 70s likely. we only need to reevaluate the bearish macro structure if we get a weekly close > 78k.
  
  among alts NEAR is looking good.
  its got both AI and privacy narrative going for it. charts consolidating at 2 levels. if we get a proper breakout (close > 2.2) then its got legs.

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macro

charts is all that matters but for those who like a story here goes.

consensus and most of the market is pricing in rate hikes / HAWISH fed.

i am of the opinion that the fed under new chair kevin warsh will likely hold a neutral stance as long as possible.

if warsh drops even the slightest hint of dovishness at the FOMC, we have a melt-up on our hands. even a strictly neutral stance in this environment is bullish for risk-on assets.

the base case is that we get 'the deal' with iran formalized before the FOMC.

an easing of geopolitical tensions and energy price pressure (oils already down 30% from peak) gives the fed the leeway they need to support this administration.

expecting a rally over the next few weeks before the summer correction kicks in likely in july but let's cross the bridge when we get there.

see you in the next one.