Newsletter #21 Okay, Its happening!

Model's call to exit ALL positions and get into CASH almost a month ago is playing out really well.

Model continues to sit on 100% cash.

For weeks now I have been warning about ominous macro. You can read them here & here. Back when I wrote these, the FED pivot was the consensus view.

In last week's letter again I wrote the below

Bullish DXY + US10y + VIX is a very potent combo. It usually doesn't bode well for risk assets.
Model continues to be Bullish on DXY (US Dollar), US10Y (Interest Rates) and VIX (Volatility Index).
There could be a vicious down move in both Stocks and Cryptos if the above macro persists.

DXY is up almost 5% since the model signaled bullish weeks ago and could be making a climax move in the coming weeks.
Interest Rates US10Y have gone up from 2.9% to 3.7%
S&P500 and Nasdaq100 were down 5% for the week and about 10% since the model flashed the bearish signal
VIX is up about 60% since the model flashed a bullish signal.

I have been sending a repeated warning about VIX on Twitter too.

Model continues to be Bullish on DXY (US Dollar), US10Y (Interest Rates), and VIX (Volatility Index).

It could get really brutal for Risk assets such as Stocks & Crypto in the next 3 weeks. There's a heightened risk of a major capitulation event.

But don't take this as a signal to go short. Most of these trends are in mature phases. Late shorts usually end up losing their shirts & shorts.

If anything, the coming weeks could be the best time to accumulate high conviction assets as mentioned below. Will keep you folks posted when the model flips long. Check out one of the investment thesis I wrote Is this Bitcoin Miner a potential 50x in the making?

But the good news is, Bitcoin and Ethereum are entering the value zone, if we do get a market-wide sell off then it would be a great time and price to accumulate these assets for those who believe in this space.

Models bearish call on CrudeOil has continued to do well too. Model has managed to call the top in Oil and it continues to be bearish.

Coming to Crypto, Last week I wrote this

While everyone was really bullish going into the merge, price action was clearly suggesting otherwise. I tweeted about this a few times too. Below is the ETHBTC chart which is looking really weak. Also, Model is bearish on ETHBTC

Model continues to be bearish ETHBTC.

Below are the Models signals on BTC, ETH, and Solana from 2020 to date. I update this every week.


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