If you read my mid-week update I mentioned models picking up signs that the macro variables seem to be deteriorating.
USD, VIX, and Interest rates US10Y looking strong. Stocks reversing from key resistance levels.
How all of these are pointing towards a risk-off situation.
USD is up about 5% from the lows (that's a huge move in the Forex world).
US10Y has gone from 3.3% to 3.9% which is about a 19% increase from the lows.
VIX is up about 28% from the lows.
Given this macro backdrop, and also considering crypto has had a steep one-way rally of about 50% in BTC/ETH from the lows (Alts have run up a lot more)
One would expect that it would have a strong pullback.
But it's barely corrected and held extremely well.
Now there are 2 rules I have picked up over the years
- What doesn't kill you, makes you stronger.
- If the markets are not doing what they are "Supposed" to. then pay extra attention to it.
Even sentiment-wise, overall bullishness has toned down a lot, even from some of the heavyweight bulls, which is good to see. At this point, the consensus view seems to be that crypto goes lower.
Now, just because it hasn't pulled back thus far, doesn't mean it CANNOT pullback. As always one needs to be open-minded and react to what the market tells you.
A few days ago I posted this and it's still relevant. I would be playing defense till we get a breakout of these levels.
As I mentioned in the last update
There are many ways to play defense. Different traders/investors deal with it differently. Some book profits and some reduce position sizes. Some hedge their LONGs by buying PUT options.
Coming to Models performance many of the models have done really well.
Model has managed to bag many Multiple X gainers such as SSV, AGIX, FET, RNDR, IRIS, RIF and some others are up over 50%-80%.
Model continues to be long
$BTC $ETH $SOL $MATIC $LDO $SSV $FET $AGIX $RNDR $ARPA $INJ $WOO $PHB $LIT $IRIS $ASTR $PHA $RIF $AUDIO $MTL $TRU
Model has exited
$ATOM $OCEAN $RLC $FTM $DOT $VOXEL $AR $SFP $FLUX
Model has entered
$STX (it's up a lot, ideal entry point would be on pullbacks)
I published the FAQs for Premium Subscription for those interested. Just getting some of the admin stuff sorted. Will launch it post that hopefully this week.
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