Many traders/investors think in terms of extremes.
Either BTC goes to Zero or 100K. Either one is a BULL or a BEAR. The answer always lies somewhere in between. One needs to adapt (quickly) depending on the data.
The model has been picking up signs of loss of momentum on LTF.
It's not a SELL / CASH call yet. Those would be confirmed after the HTF close and covered during the Sunday Update.
Is the Bull market over? Nothing is suggesting the same. but even within a bull market, there are periodic corrections when things get overheated in a short period of time.
This is the market's way of cleansing the leverage built up and degen behavior.
There could be a 20%-30% correction on the horizon.
It would be prudent to play DEFENSE.
There are many ways to play defense. Different traders/investors deal with it differently. Some book profits and some reduce position sizes. Some hedge their LONGs by buying PUT options.
It would make sense to close all the Degen plays.
Now, just like every bullish call needs to have an invalidation, every bearish bias too needs the same.
So what would change this outlook?
BTC would need to close above 30700
ETH would need to close above 2100
It's time to be more cautious till we get a strong indication of a reversal.
If we do get the reversal before the weekly close then it would be again time to play offense.
See you all in the next post.
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