leg up before local top?
appreciate those reaching out on DMs. i am good. still enjoying the break from twitter. delivering updates here is cleaner and more peaceful.
TRADFI: the lock-out trend
when tradfi was getting pummeled and the sentiment was in the gutter.
update mentioned
stocks have taken a severe beating since, now, the structure is attempting a reset.
he signs of a relief rally are there.
in the last update the 'deal', the squeeze spoke of
markets are ripping higher. for now enjoy the rally.
avoid rage shorting.
lots of shorts are gonna get blown up.
i was expecting close to ATH move but even im surprised by how vertical the move has been. absolutely brutal on shorts.
anyone trying to apply logic or fundamentals to this move got run over.
only flows and positioning matter. the rest is just the story they stitch around the price action.
crypto natives have seen this movie multiple times.
some pullback is likely here. as long as 6800 holds, the structure remains constructive. best to focus on relative strength.
the leaders are clear. semis & space.
CRYPTO: the climax move
in the last update
the buy signal in the last update was timely. well before the news.
ALTs are looking primed.
most of the timeline is eager to short simply because the "4-year cycle" dictates it.
the system doesn't trade calendars.
price hasn't rolled over yet. in fact, things are aligning for a
climax move before a meaningful local resistance top kicks in.
btc 80-85k should do it.
alts, dinos, and memes are looking primed to rip.
a note on memes: back in 2023/2024, i focused heavily on memes because the trend had massive legs.
that phase has passed. when the meme category pumps collectively now, it is usually a signal that we are approaching exhaustion just like earlier cycles.
the system will give needed exits.
THE MACRO CAVEAT
this entire structural view changes in an instant if we get any hint of money printing policy. if the liquidity taps open, the rally becomes structural.
this administration is entirely unpredictable, meaning it will likely remain an active trader's market.
here is how the systems navigated the recent PA:
SYSTEM upgrade - testing is taking longer than i expected. will push it soon and send a note.
see you in the next one.